“申”度解盘 | 春季躁动预热期

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to maintain an upward trend in the medium term, with a potential low point around November 24, indicating a prelude to a spring rally [7]. Market Analysis - The index has been consolidating in the range of 3800-3950 with rapid rotation of hot sectors, primarily focusing on optical chips and commercial aerospace [6]. - The market experienced significant panic selling on October 17 and November 24, leading to a reduction in margin financing by over 28 billion, establishing strong support around the 3820 level [7]. Short-term Outlook - The upcoming Bank of Japan interest rate decision is anticipated to influence global market liquidity, but the expected impact is considered limited due to prior market adjustments [7]. December Market Expectations - Historically, December sees a defensive bias in fund allocation due to year-end effects, but this year may favor small-cap growth stocks due to a combination of Fed rate cuts and a flexible monetary policy as indicated in the Central Economic Work Conference [7].