2026年汽车行业补贴政策展望：4000亿补贴金额助力汽车市场

Group 1: 2026 Automotive Industry Subsidy Policy Outlook - The continuation of the national vehicle replacement subsidy policy is confirmed, with subsidies starting from 2020 and lasting until 2025, and an extension into 2026 expected to be announced before the Spring Festival (January-February) [1] - The total scale of the vehicle replacement subsidy in 2026 is estimated to be around 400 billion, a slight increase from 300 billion in 2025, with approximately 10% allocated to the new energy vehicle sector, corresponding to a scale of 40 billion [3] - The subsidy optimization direction includes raising technical thresholds (such as battery capacity and range) and increasing the registration age/emission thresholds for old vehicles, while slightly reducing the subsidy amount per vehicle [4] Group 2: Local Subsidy Policies and Trends - Local subsidies in 2026 will be differentiated and characterized, moving away from a one-size-fits-all approach, with examples such as Guangdong linking subsidies to vehicle purchase tax exemptions [5] - The subsidy method will involve short-cycle, frequent disbursements, with one-time subsidies lasting 2-3 months and 2-3 concentrated subsidies introduced annually to stimulate off-season sales [6] - The focus will be on new energy vehicles, which currently account for over 50% of sales, with some localities adapting to support local production brands/models [7] Group 3: Government Procurement and Charging Infrastructure - By the end of 2024, government procurement of new energy vehicles is required to exceed 30%, with 2025 seeing the inclusion of this requirement in regulations against waste [11] - The third batch of county-level charging pile subsidies is expected to be launched in 2026, with an estimated budget of 3.2 billion [14] - The goal for 2027 includes the construction of over 100,000 high-power charging piles and a total of 28 million charging facilities to meet the charging needs of 80 million vehicles [15] Group 4: Intelligent Connected Vehicle Policy Developments - The revised draft of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's Order No. 50, which governs the access of intelligent connected vehicle products and enterprises, is set to be officially released in 2026 [18] - Mandatory testing standards for L2-level advanced driver assistance systems will be officially introduced in 2026 [19] - All new vehicles must complete sandbox testing before market launch, with a focus on selecting testing institutions and developing testing processes for new technologies [21] Group 5: "14th Five-Year" Automotive Industry Planning Directions - The core development direction emphasizes low-carbon, electrification, and intelligence, with a gradual shift of fuel vehicles towards high-efficiency hybrid models, aiming for full hybridization of passenger vehicles by 2035 [23] - By the end of the "14th Five-Year" period, new energy vehicles are expected to account for 70%-80% of total sales [24] - The goal for L3-level and above autonomous driving is to achieve a 30% penetration rate, with ongoing discussions [25]