【广发宏观郭磊】有效需求不足凸显，政策加力空间打开

Economic Overview - The economic data for November indicates a significant lack of effective demand, with supply remaining relatively stable. Industrial added value year-on-year is at 4.8%, slightly down from the previous value of 4.9%, primarily due to base effects. The demand side shows a clear divergence, with export growth rebounding while domestic demand remains weak. Fixed asset investment year-on-year is approximately -11%, consistent with previous values. Real estate sales area has seen a slight narrowing in decline, but sales revenue has expanded in its year-on-year decline. Retail sales have significantly slowed to 1.3% year-on-year [1][5][6]. Industrial Production - The seasonally adjusted month-on-month industrial added value is 0.44%, higher than October and roughly in line with the average of the previous ten months, indicating little change in the real intensity of industrial production. High-tech industries have seen a year-on-year added value growth of 8.4%, with significant production increases in integrated circuits and industrial robots. However, smartphone and solar cell production have experienced negative year-on-year growth, while construction materials like crude steel and cement also show negative growth [8][10][12]. Retail Sales - The seasonally adjusted month-on-month retail sales have decreased by 0.42%, marking the lowest point of the year. Among major categories, the highest absolute growth is in communication equipment at 20.6% year-on-year. However, durable consumer goods such as home appliances and automobiles show the lowest growth due to high base effects and reduced promotional efforts [11][12]. Fixed Asset Investment - The seasonally adjusted month-on-month fixed asset investment is -1.03%, slightly better than the previous value of -1.5%. Year-on-year, it stands at -11.1%, consistent with the previous value. Manufacturing investment has seen a slight narrowing in decline, while real estate investment has expanded its decline. Infrastructure investment remains relatively unchanged. The issuance of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools is expected to support some projects in manufacturing and infrastructure, but current data does not yet reflect this impact [12][13][16]. Real Estate Market - Real estate-related indicators remain at low levels. The sales area has seen a slight narrowing in decline, but the sales revenue decline has expanded. New construction area has also seen a slight narrowing in decline, while construction area has expanded its decline. The price index for new residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities has decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, slightly better than October's 0.5% decline, but still among the highest declines of the year [16][17]. GDP Simulation - The simulated actual GDP index based on industrial added value and service production index year-on-year is approximately 4.22%. The cumulative actual GDP year-on-year for the first eleven months stands at 5.02%. The economic data indicates strong resilience in exports, while the main weaknesses lie in domestic demand, particularly in consumption, fixed investment, and real estate [4][17].