重阳投资·2025-12-15 07:52Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of controlling drawdowns in investment funds to achieve long-term success, suggesting that lower volatility often correlates with higher returns [4][7][17]. Fund Performance Analysis - From January 1, 2020, to November 20, 2025, the median return of Chinese equity mutual funds was approximately 44.78%, with an annualized compound return of about 6.45% and a median drawdown of 45.12% [5][6]. - Funds with severe drawdowns (60-80%) accounted for 12.53% of the total, with an average return of 26.8%. In contrast, funds with smaller drawdowns (15-30%) represented 10.25% and achieved an average return of 72.25% [6][7]. - The data indicates that 81.28% of funds experienced drawdowns greater than 30%, with over 50.38% facing drawdowns exceeding 45% [6]. Drawdown and Return Relationship - There is an inverse relationship between drawdown magnitude and average return; larger drawdowns lead to lower average returns. For instance, a drawdown of over 30% requires a rebound of 43% to break even [7][8]. - Funds with drawdowns between 15% and 30% achieved the highest average returns, while those with minimal drawdowns (0-15%) had lower average returns [7]. Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - Investors often struggle to profit from highly volatile funds due to emotional reactions, leading to premature buying and selling decisions [8][10]. - The case of "Wooden Sister" (Cathie Wood) illustrates how significant volatility can lead to substantial losses for latecomers who buy at market peaks [8][10]. Investment Philosophy - The article draws parallels between investment strategies and philosophical teachings from "Tao Te Ching," advocating for moderation and the avoidance of excessive greed [17][20]. - It highlights that enduring volatility is essential for long-term investment success, as evidenced by successful investment firms that manage to withstand significant drawdowns [15][16]. Conclusion - The key takeaway is that achieving a balance between risk and return is crucial in investment, and understanding the costs associated with pursuing higher returns is essential for long-term success [22][23].