“调整风暴”来了！黄金和白银将迎巨量抛压

Core Viewpoint - A significant "technical storm" driven by index rules is anticipated, primarily affecting the strong-performing gold and silver markets [2] Group 1: Technical Adjustments and Market Impact - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is set for annual weight rebalancing in January 2026, which is expected to exert substantial selling pressure on gold and silver futures [3][4] - Gold and silver have outperformed other commodities over the past three years, leading to an elevated weight in the BCOM index, necessitating passive funds to sell positions during the rebalancing [5] - The report predicts a staggering sell-off scale, with silver facing the heaviest pressure, estimated at about 9% of its total open contracts, while gold is expected to see a sell-off of approximately 3% [6][7] Group 2: Seasonal Trends vs. Technical Selling - January will present a battleground of bullish seasonal trends against bearish technical selling for gold investors [9] - Historically, gold prices have averaged a 4.6% increase during the last ten trading days of the year to the first twenty trading days of the next year, with an 80% probability of rising [10] - The anticipated technical selling pressure from index rebalancing may counteract the traditional seasonal bullish trend, particularly for silver, which faces greater selling pressure this year [12] Group 3: Broader Commodity Market Effects - The rebalancing will impact various commodities beyond precious metals, creating complex long and short dynamics across different indices [13] - Cocoa is expected to be the biggest winner, with anticipated buying pressure equivalent to 22% of its total open contracts due to its re-inclusion in the BCOM index [14] - The energy market will see minimal overall impact, but natural gas may experience selling pressure of about 3% of its total open contracts [15] - Industrial metals will see mild buying pressure, particularly lead, which is projected to receive about 3% of its total open contracts [16] Group 4: Market Volatility and Key Observations - The rebalancing involves not only BCOM but also the S&P GSCI index, with overlapping adjustment windows from January 8 to 15, 2026 [18] - The total assets tracking BCOM exceed $60 billion, indicating that such a large-scale adjustment will amplify market volatility [19] - Notable discrepancies in adjustment directions between BCOM and S&P GSCI could trigger cross-index arbitrage activities and unusual market fluctuations, making the second week of January 2026 a critical observation period for investors [19]