大摩重磅机器人年鉴：AI走向实体化，机器人迎来寒武纪大爆发，中国领先优势明显

Core Insights - The article discusses a fundamental shift in artificial intelligence from the digital realm to the physical world, predicting a global robotics hardware market worth up to $25 trillion by 2050, driven by advancements in AI technology [1][3]. Market Growth Projections - Morgan Stanley's global robotics model forecasts that global robotics hardware sales will surge from approximately $100 billion in 2025 to $500 billion by 2030, reaching $9 trillion by 2040 and $25 trillion by 2050 [1][4]. - By 2050, it is expected that 1.4 billion robots will be sold globally, with a total of 6.5 billion operational robots [4]. Diverse Robot Forms - The types of robots will be highly diverse, including industrial robots, service robots, drones, autonomous vehicles, humanoid robots, and household robots, applicable across various sectors such as manufacturing, healthcare, agriculture, transportation, defense, and space exploration [6]. Component Demand Surge - The explosive growth of the robotics industry will create significant opportunities for upstream component suppliers. By 2050, the demand for key components will include 5.7 billion cameras, 27 billion motors, 41 billion bearings, and 1.25 million ExaFLOPS of edge computing capacity, among others [8][9]. Investment Opportunities - The demand surge will present major business opportunities for suppliers of motors, bearings, rare earth materials, cameras, sensors, AI chips, and batteries. Small drones and low-altitude robotic systems are identified as the most promising investment areas due to factors such as ease of navigation, government prioritization following lessons from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the maturation of regulatory frameworks [9]. China's Competitive Advantage - China is highlighted as having a clear competitive edge in the robotics sector, particularly in manufacturing capabilities, control of rare earth materials, and policy support. The country is expected to maintain and expand its leading position over the next decade [3][14]. - By 2025, investments in the robotics and drone sectors in China are projected to exceed $30 billion, with AI-related financing reaching $260 billion, indicating China's significant role in the global market [14]. Market Share and Future Outlook - By 2050, China is anticipated to account for approximately 26% of global robot sales, with even higher shares in industrial robots and drones. Morgan Stanley notes that China holds a dominant position in the humanoid robot supply chain, particularly in the "body" segment [15]. - Manufacturing capability is identified as the core competitive advantage in the era of embodied intelligence, contrasting with the previous focus on software and algorithms in the digital AI era [15].