【招银研究|宏观点评】生产好于需求，外需好于内需——中国经济数据点评（2025年11月）

Overview - The overall economic performance in November shows a slowdown, with key indicators falling below market expectations. Industrial value added increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% [1] - External demand remains resilient, but internal demand has significantly weakened, leading to a widening gap between industrial value added growth and investment and retail sales growth [1] - Consumer price index (CPI) inflation rose to 0.7%, the highest since March 2024, while producer price index (PPI) inflation slightly declined to -2.2% [1] Structure - Consumer spending showed weakness, with retail sales growth at 1.3%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month. Notably, retail sales of automobiles and home appliances saw significant declines of 8.3% and 19.4%, respectively [2] - Fixed asset investment fell by 2.6%, with infrastructure investment down 11.9% and real estate investment plummeting by 30.3%. The decline in real estate is attributed to weak sales and financing pressures [3] - Exports showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% in dollar terms, while imports rose by 1.9%. The growth in exports to emerging markets remains strong despite challenges in the U.S. market [4] Supply - Industrial production remained stable, with a 4.8% year-on-year increase in industrial value added. High-tech industries saw a notable growth of 8.4% [5] - CPI inflation increased significantly due to seasonal factors, particularly in fresh vegetables, while PPI inflation showed a slight decline. The performance of various sectors varied, with some industries experiencing price increases while others faced declines [5] Conclusion - The economic growth rate for the year is expected to be around 5%, with a focus on sustainable policy adjustments to enhance economic recovery. The upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is anticipated to provide a stable foundation for economic growth [6]