数据点评｜11月经济：从“分化”看“转型”（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - Economic differentiation reveals clues about policy transformation, as "old indicators" overlook "new changes" in the economy [2][4][89] Consumption - Consumption policies are shifting from goods to services, leading to a decline in social retail sales while service retail shows strength. The social retail sales growth fell to 1.3%, driven by a decline in retail growth for goods such as home appliances and automobiles [2][8][68] - Service consumption remains positive, with total service retail sales increasing by 5.4% year-on-year, despite a slight decline in restaurant income [2][4][8] Real Estate - Real estate financing weakened due to credit risks from certain property companies, causing a significant drop in investment. In November, self-raised funds for property companies decreased, leading to a 25.3% decline in credit financing growth [2][12][63] - Real estate investment growth fell to -29.9%, with new construction and completion rates also showing significant negative growth [2][12][63] Investment - Recent policy measures have alleviated the "crowding out effect" of debt repayment on investment, with fixed asset investment showing a month-on-month rebound of 2.1% to -10.1% [3][22][88] - Infrastructure investment improved by 2.9% to -6.7%, while manufacturing and service sector investments also saw slight recoveries [3][22][88] Production - Industrial production maintained resilience, with industrial value-added growth stabilizing at 4.8%. The easing of workday effects and previous high inventory levels contributed to this stability [3][33][42] - Certain downstream industries, such as food and textiles, experienced significant production growth, while the automotive sector saw a decline [3][33][42] Summary - The economic structure is increasingly differentiated during the policy transformation process, but the positive effects of policies on the economy are becoming evident. Consumption policies are transitioning towards services, and while indicators for goods consumption are declining, service retail growth is rising [4][89][90] - Investment policies are focusing on "new investment" areas, with signs of improvement in new infrastructure and service sector investments, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [4][89][90]