多晶硅新高背后：一场“假高潮”？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the polysilicon futures market, highlighting a significant increase in prices despite underlying supply-demand imbalances and inventory accumulation [3][6]. Price Movement - On December 15, 2025, polysilicon futures prices rose by 840 yuan/ton to 58,030 yuan/ton, marking an increase of over 3% and reaching a new high [3]. Driving Factors for Price Increase - Reports indicate that polysilicon production or shipment volumes may significantly decline to support prices, with low warehouse receipts also favoring a stronger price trend [5]. - Despite the anticipated production cuts, last week's production decline was minimal, leading to continued oversupply and inventory growth [5]. Market Dynamics - The main contradiction in the market is between the strong futures market with high premiums and the weak spot market characterized by oversupply [6]. - Following the announcement of new registered brands for polysilicon futures, prices initially dropped but later rebounded due to expectations of production cuts and price adjustments [6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Demand remains weak, with inventory increasing by 10,000 tons to 291,000 tons, while production slightly decreased [7]. - The downstream production is expected to decline further, particularly in the battery cell segment, which faces dual pressures from high raw material costs and falling product prices [7]. Future Outlook - The contradiction between a strong futures market and weak spot demand persists, necessitating careful position management by investors [8]. - The actual supply-demand balance will depend on the implementation of production cuts and capacity adjustments [8]. - If significant production cuts occur, polysilicon prices may continue to rise; otherwise, high premiums in futures may converge with spot prices [8].