国泰海通｜固收：理解重要会议后的债市波动：三个层次的分析

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Political Bureau and Economic Work Conference meetings indicate a stable yet cautious approach towards monetary and fiscal policies, with potential implications for the bond market in 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Understanding the Impact on the Bond Market - The overall impact of the conference's statements on the bond market is neutral, with a defined upper limit for bond market fluctuations in 2026 [1]. - The monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with possibilities for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, while fiscal policy is likely to be stable with limited incremental content [1]. - The language used in the economic work meeting suggests that monetary policy may not be implemented immediately and could adopt various forms of interest rate cuts [1]. Group 2: Long-term and Short-term Perspectives - The bond market may experience slower interest rate increases compared to developed economies, with a potential upper limit for interest rate adjustments being lower [2]. - The bond market's upward pressure on interest rates is expected to be less than that faced by overseas markets during fiscal expansion periods, indicating a more stable environment [2]. - The bond market's short-term dynamics are influenced by weak demand for bonds at year-end, leading to insufficient buying pressure despite the positive tone of the conference statements [3]. Group 3: Trading Dynamics and Recommendations - The lack of strong buying power in the bond market at year-end may lead to a continued weak and volatile state until early January 2026 [3]. - It is suggested to maintain a trading strategy focused on potential rebounds in the bond market, with specific interest rate targets for 10-year bonds between 1.85% and 1.90% [3]. - The trading environment may see fluctuations in bond prices, particularly for 30-year bonds and other long-term bonds, necessitating a higher safety margin [3].