中金2026年展望 | 电力设备+工控：“十五五”景气延续，AIDC助推全球电力超级周期

Core Viewpoint - The power grid and industrial control sectors are expected to show steady growth through 2025, with a focus on structural investment opportunities, particularly in high-elasticity areas such as AIDC and overseas expansion [2][4]. Power Grid - The investment in the national power grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan is projected to grow at an average annual rate of over 5%, driven by high-intensity construction of ultra-high voltage projects and sustained high levels of main network investment [4][6]. - The total investment in the power grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan is estimated to be around 2.8 trillion yuan, with an average annual investment of approximately 550 billion yuan [6]. - The ultra-high voltage construction is expected to maintain high intensity, with a total investment of over 800 billion yuan anticipated during the 14th Five-Year Plan [8][10]. - The main network investment has shown strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 20% in the first five batches of equipment tenders [10][12]. - The digitalization of the power grid is expected to continue growing, with significant increases in tender amounts for digital equipment and services [14][15]. Industrial Control - The industrial control sector is currently in a phase of internal recovery, with moderate market improvement observed in demand and inventory levels [16][17]. - The OEM market has shown a year-on-year increase, driven by demand from the energy storage and new energy sectors [20][21]. - Structural growth opportunities are anticipated in the industrial control sector, particularly in the context of the ongoing expansion of the new energy industry [21][22]. AIDC - The AIDC sector is expected to focus on high-slope directions in both strong and weak power supply, with significant advancements anticipated in power density and efficiency [22][24]. - The strong power side is evolving towards more efficient systems, while the weak power side is seeing upgrades that could significantly increase product average selling prices (ASP) [26][28]. Overseas Expansion - The global power investment cycle is expected to create opportunities for the export of power equipment, particularly in regions facing electricity shortages [30][31]. - The demand for gas turbines and SOFCs is anticipated to rise, with China positioned to benefit from these trends through increased exports [47][48]. - China's transformer exports have seen significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 40% in the first ten months of 2025, reflecting a strong international demand [39][40].