【光大研究每日速递】20251216

Macro - The Biden administration's enhanced healthcare plan has become a political tool for both parties, significantly impacting the capital market. Currently, only three departments have reached a budget agreement, accounting for 11% of the total budget, while the remaining nine departments' budgets are set to expire on January 30, 2026. The recent vote on healthcare proposals has led to a bleak outlook for resolution before the Christmas holiday [5] Financial Engineering - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery with increased trading confidence, as evidenced by the rising volatility in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices. The Central Economic Work Conference has further boosted market sentiment, suggesting a potential transition from a liquidity-driven market to one driven by fundamentals. The focus remains on a "dividend + technology" investment strategy for the medium to long term [5] Steel Industry - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in December is expected to be lower than the same period last year. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has introduced new regulations aimed at phasing out outdated production capacity, which may lead to a recovery in steel sector profitability to historical average levels [7] Non-Ferrous Metals - Lithium prices have reached approximately 92,000 yuan per ton, with recommendations to focus on companies with cost advantages and resource expansion potential. Prices for cobalt and other related materials have increased, while tungsten prices remain at their highest levels since 2012. The price of neodymium oxide has reached a 19-month high [8] Petrochemical Industry - Sinopec Group is actively pursuing deep reforms and transformations, enhancing governance efficiency through world-class management benchmarks. The company is also improving its ESG performance and has established a clear path for carbon neutrality, attracting long-term capital investments [8] Electric New Energy and Environmental Protection - The Central Economic Work Conference has emphasized the application of green electricity and the promotion of a comprehensive green transition. Plans for 2026 include strengthening the national carbon emissions trading market and fostering new growth areas such as hydrogen energy and green fuels [8]