Liquidity - M1 and M2 growth rate difference reached a nearly 56-month high in September, followed by a decline for two consecutive months [4] - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for November 2025 is 52.50, up 0.17% month-on-month [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in November 2025 is -3.1 percentage points, down 1.10 percentage points month-on-month [4] - Current London gold spot price is $4,299 per ounce [4] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The national blast furnace capacity utilization rate has been below the same period last year for two consecutive weeks [5] - Price changes this week include rebar down 0.61%, cement price index up 0.86%, rubber up 1.71%, coke down 3.29%, coking coal down 0.71%, and iron ore down 0.63% [5] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, and asphalt are down 1.16 percentage points, down 0.30 percentage points, and up 0.3 percentage points respectively [5] Real Estate Completion Chain - Titanium dioxide gross profit is at a low level, with a gross profit of -1,679 yuan per ton [6] - Prices for titanium dioxide and glass remain unchanged week-on-week [6] - Flat glass operating rate this week is 73.82% [6] Industrial Products Chain - The semi-steel tire operating rate is at the median level for the past five years [7] - Major commodity price performance this week includes cold-rolled steel unchanged, copper up 2.59%, and aluminum down 0.36% [8] - National semi-steel tire operating rate is 71.57%, up 0.65 percentage points week-on-week [8] Subcategories - Prebaked anode prices are at the highest level since April 2023 [9] - Graphite electrode price is 19,000 yuan per ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 3,128.56 yuan per ton, up 55.87% [9] - Electrolytic aluminum price is 22,070 yuan per ton, down 0.36%, with estimated profit of 4,759 yuan per ton (excluding tax), up 0.19% [9] - Electrolytic copper price is 93,970 yuan per ton, up 2.59% [9] - Tungsten concentrate price is 374,000 yuan per ton, up 5.65% week-on-week [9] Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of London spot gold to silver reached a new low since July 2021 [10] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore this week is 4.07 [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is 0 yuan per ton [10] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel is 490 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan per ton week-on-week [10] - The price ratio of stainless steel hot-rolled to electrolytic nickel is 0.11 [10] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 190 yuan per ton, up 11.76% week-on-week [10] - The price difference between medium-thick plates and rebar is 30 yuan per ton [10] Export Chain - The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index this week is 1,118.07 points, up 0.29% [11] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is 75.70%, down 0.10 percentage points [11] - In November 2025, China's PMI new export orders are at 47.60%, up 1.7 percentage points month-on-month [11] - Starting January 1, 2026, China will implement export license management for certain steel products, which is expected to further regulate steel product exports [11] Valuation Percentiles - This week, the CSI 300 index is down 0.08%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being engineering machinery, up 0.30% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is 34.35% and 96.70% respectively [12] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is currently 0.51, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 (reached in August 2017) [12]
【钢铁】12月高炉产能利用率有望低于去年同期水平——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.12.8-12.14） （王招华/戴默）
光大证券研究·2025-12-15 23:07