美联储下一任主席生变！沃什的政策主张：降息+缩表

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of Kevin Warsh's candidacy for the Federal Reserve Chair, highlighting his unique policy stance of "parallel rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" and the challenges this poses in the current regulatory environment [1][6][22]. Group 1: Warsh's Candidacy and Policy Stance - Warsh is seen as a leading candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair, alongside Kevin Hassett, amid concerns about Hassett's close ties to President Trump [3][5]. - Deutsche Bank analyzes that if Warsh is elected, he would support interest rate cuts while also advocating for a reduction in the balance sheet [6][22]. - The feasibility of implementing "parallel rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" hinges on regulatory reforms that lower banks' reserve requirements, which is currently uncertain [7][25]. Group 2: Warsh's Background and Critique of Fed Policies - Warsh has a legal background and extensive experience in both public and private sectors, having served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 during the global financial crisis [9][10]. - He has been critical of the Fed's aggressive balance sheet policies over the past 15 years, arguing that quantitative easing (QE) has deviated from the central bank's core responsibilities [11][15]. - Warsh believes that continued QE could lead to inflation and financial stability risks, and he has expressed concerns about the Fed's involvement in fiscal policy matters [15][16]. Group 3: Future Policy Implications - Despite advocating for lower interest rates, Deutsche Bank notes that Warsh is structurally not dovish, particularly regarding balance sheet issues [22]. - The article suggests that the new Fed Chair will face pressure to maintain independence amid Trump's calls for significant rate cuts, which may complicate the credibility of their policy commitments [8][26]. - Investors should prepare for a gradual policy adjustment process rather than an immediate shift in Fed policy following the new Chair's appointment [27][28].