美联储下一任主席生变！沃什的政策主张：降息+缩表

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidacy of Kevin Warsh for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman, highlighting the shift in market sentiment and the implications of his policy proposals, particularly the combination of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction [1][2][3]. Group 1: Candidate Dynamics - Kevin Hassett, initially seen as a frontrunner for the Federal Reserve Chairman position, faces resistance from Trump's allies, leading to a decline in his market odds from over 80% to 51% [2]. - Kevin Warsh's odds have significantly increased from approximately 11% to 44% following Trump's endorsement [2]. Group 2: Policy Proposals - Deutsche Bank's analysis indicates that if Warsh is elected, he would advocate for a unique policy approach of "simultaneous rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" [3][4]. - The feasibility of this approach hinges on regulatory reforms that would lower banks' reserve requirements, which is currently uncertain [4]. Group 3: Warsh's Background and Critique of Fed Policies - Warsh, a lawyer with extensive experience in both public and private sectors, served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 during the global financial crisis [6][7]. - He has been a vocal critic of the Fed's aggressive balance sheet policies over the past 15 years, arguing that quantitative easing (QE) has deviated from the central bank's core responsibilities [8][12]. Group 4: Recent Policy Outlook - Despite advocating for lower interest rates, Deutsche Bank suggests that Warsh is not structurally dovish, having previously held more hawkish views during his tenure at the Fed [22][23]. - Warsh's recent statements indicate a potential support for lowering policy rates, but this may come at the cost of reducing the Fed's balance sheet size, contingent on regulatory reforms [24][25]. Group 5: Market Implications - The article emphasizes that regardless of who is chosen as the next Fed Chairman, the market will likely test the new leader's independence and credibility in achieving inflation targets [26]. - Investors should prepare for a gradual policy adjustment process rather than an immediate shift in Fed policy following the new Chairman's appointment [28].