中游供需矛盾进一步改善——11月经济数据点评

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the improvement of supply-demand contradictions in the midstream sector, indicating a potential shift from "strong supply and weak demand" to "weak supply and strong demand" in the coming years [2][3]. Group 1: Midstream Supply-Demand Analysis - The analysis method involves measuring the difference between demand growth and investment growth, where a positive difference indicates alleviation of supply-demand contradictions [2][5]. - Key indicators include upstream demand from material exports and construction investment, midstream demand from machinery exports and equipment investment, and downstream demand from labor-intensive product exports [5][12]. - In November, the midstream demand growth was 8.9%, slightly down from 10.3% in September, while midstream investment growth was 1.3%, down from 4.2% in September, leading to a demand-investment growth difference of 7.6% [6][13]. Group 2: Future Projections - Historical data suggests that the midstream demand-investment growth difference is likely to remain positive, with expectations for the midstream PPI (Producer Price Index) to stop declining and potentially rise by 2026 [3][14]. - The midstream PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.04% in November, marking the first positive change since June 2024, indicating a potential upward trend in midstream ROE (Return on Equity) [7][14]. Group 3: November Economic Data Overview - In November, industrial production growth was 4.8%, while service sector production index growth was 4.2%, indicating a slight weakening in supply-side performance [19]. - Consumer retail sales growth was 1.3%, down from 2.9% in October, while exports rebounded to a growth of 5.9% from a decline of 1.1% [19][21]. - Real estate sales area decreased by 17.3% year-on-year, and fixed asset investment saw a decline of 12.0% in November [19][22]. Group 4: Employment and Price Trends - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, with a slight decrease in the unemployment rate for migrant agricultural workers to 4.4% [23]. - The CPI (Consumer Price Index) rose to 0.7% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 2.2%, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in the economy [21][22].