美国初请失业金人数大幅上升——海外周报第118期

Key Points - The article discusses recent economic data and trends in the US, Japan, and the Eurozone, highlighting significant changes in unemployment claims, trade deficits, and GDP growth [2][4][15][16][17]. Group 1: Important Data Review - The number of initial unemployment claims in the US rose significantly to 236,000, exceeding expectations of 220,000, while the previous week's figure was 192,000 [15]. - The US trade deficit narrowed to $52.8 billion in September, the smallest since mid-2020, with exports increasing by 3.0% and imports rising by 0.6% [15]. - Japan's GDP for Q3 was revised down, showing a contraction of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, compared to an expected decline of 0.5% [16]. Group 2: Economic Activity Index - The US WEI index increased to 2.37% from 2.07% the previous week, indicating a rebound in economic activity [5][20]. - The German WAI index also rose to 0.19% from 0.18%, suggesting a similar trend in Germany [5][20]. Group 3: Demand - US retail sales growth slowed, with the Redbook commercial retail index dropping to 5.7% year-on-year from 7.6% the previous week [6][25]. - Mortgage rates in the US increased slightly to 6.22%, while mortgage applications rose, with the MBA market composite index climbing to 327.9, up 4.8% week-on-week [6][28]. Group 4: Prices - Commodity prices fell, with the RJ/CRB commodity price index decreasing by 2.5% week-on-week [7][46]. - The average retail price of gasoline in the US dropped to $2.82 per gallon, down 1.2% from the previous week [7][46]. Group 5: Employment - The ADP weekly employment change showed an increase, with a total of 19,000 new jobs added over the past four weeks, compared to a loss of 54,000 jobs the previous week [8][33]. - Initial unemployment claims rose to 236,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.838 million from 1.937 million the previous week [8][37]. - The INDEED job vacancy index remained stable at a weekly average of 104.6, indicating low fluctuations in job openings [9][41]. Group 6: Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Eurozone tightened, with the Bloomberg financial conditions index for the US dropping to 0.716 from 0.732 [10][49]. - Offshore dollar liquidity worsened, with the basis for the yen against the dollar widening to -32.8480 basis points [10][53]. - The 10-year bond yield spread between the US and Eurozone narrowed, while the spread between the US and Japan widened [10][56].