基本面没变、股价却崩了，你该抄底还是逃跑？

Group 1 - The article discusses the reliability of market predictions and the concept of "Mr. Market," suggesting that market prices often reflect emotional states rather than rational evaluations of fundamentals [4][5]. - It highlights examples from the A-share market where stock prices peaked before the actual revenue growth of leading companies, indicating a potential predictive nature of stock prices [6][8]. - The article argues against the belief that stock prices can foresee fundamental changes, emphasizing that historical examples often reflect narrative biases rather than true predictive capabilities [10][12]. Group 2 - The relationship between stock prices and fundamentals is explored through the "random walk theory," which posits that stock prices reflect fundamental changes only when informed investors act on new information [20][22]. - It is noted that only a small percentage of informed investors (10%) can accurately assess changes in fundamentals, leading to a disconnect for the majority of investors who may misinterpret market signals [19][21]. - The article concludes that while market movements may seem to predict fundamental changes, they often do not provide actionable insights for uninformed investors [33][35].