2026大宗商品叙事修正与配置战略

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the structural differentiation in commodity prices driven by macroeconomic policies and global strategic shifts, predicting that this trend will continue into 2026 [4][5]. Group 1: Review of 2025 - In 2025, commodities experienced "two resonances and two differentiations," with notable price movements influenced by external policy shocks and domestic economic conditions [7][8]. - The first differentiation occurred from post-Spring Festival to the end of March, where black commodities weakened while non-ferrous metals showed strength [8]. - The first resonance happened from early April to late May, where commodities collectively weakened due to tariff impacts, except for precious metals [8][10]. - The second resonance from mid-June to early August saw a recovery in commodity prices driven by both internal and external factors [8][10]. - The second differentiation from mid-August onwards showed weakness in black, energy, and agricultural products, while precious and non-ferrous metals remained strong [8]. Group 2: Global Macro Economy and Strategic Mainline - The article highlights the need to focus on policy effects under the "high-quality development" framework in China, with an emphasis on effective investment and consumption [27][29]. - The U.S. economy is characterized by multiple expectation gaps, with significant policy impacts overshadowing fundamental economic data [37][40]. - Other regions, including Europe and Japan, face economic concerns, with potential shifts in monetary policy as they navigate inflation and growth challenges [48][50]. Group 3: 2026 Outlook - The long-term narratives of energy transition, AI-driven demand, and resource nationalism are expected to continue shaping commodity markets [5][61]. - The growth in energy storage demand is anticipated to be robust, driven by clean energy initiatives and technological advancements [61][63]. - AI investments are projected to stimulate demand for specific commodities, particularly in data center construction, which will require significant amounts of copper and other materials [67][68]. - Global strategic shifts are leading to increased competition for key resources, with nations focusing on supply chain security and self-sufficiency [79][80]. Group 4: Commodity Configuration Strategies - The article suggests that commodity pricing will stabilize in 2026, with a gradual recovery in PPI expected as macroeconomic conditions improve [34][29]. - The focus on stabilizing industrial product prices through policy measures is seen as crucial for maintaining market equilibrium [31][32]. - The anticipated adjustments in production capacity and market dynamics will create both strategic and tactical opportunities for investors [6][34].