美元、A股与黄金的2026：经济学家解码全球资产“避风港”

Group 1: Global Asset Allocation - The core viewpoint emphasizes that investors should focus on building resilient investment portfolios amid uncertainty rather than trying to predict market turning points [2] - Morgan Stanley's chief economist for China, Xing Ziqiang, predicts that the US economy will maintain resilience over the next two years, with real growth close to 2% and nominal growth reaching 4-5% [3] - The support for this prediction is based on the "AI investment boom" and the unique US strategy of "high growth, high inflation, and low interest rate" for debt management [3] Group 2: Market Perspectives - Lianhua Asset Management's partner, Hong Hao, anticipates significant market volatility in 2026 due to potential Federal Reserve policy missteps, suggesting that the dollar may be losing its traditional safe-haven status [4] - Hong Hao believes that the US stock market may experience a "rise then fall" pattern, with liquidity cycles still supporting risk assets in the short term, but warns of high valuation risks [4] - In contrast, Hong Hao is more optimistic about commodities, particularly industrial metals, which he sees as essential in the AI era for building data and energy centers [4][5] Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Xing Ziqiang highlights the "bright side" of the Chinese economy, noting that new technology sectors provide opportunities for investors, especially after the "9.24 policy" improved market vitality [8] - Hong Hao points out that China is undergoing a significant transition from a real estate-driven economy to one driven by new productive forces, including AI and robotics [8] - The outlook for the Chinese stock market is characterized by dynamic highlights that can sustain growth despite macroeconomic challenges [8][10] Group 4: Long-term Strategy - Xing Ziqiang proposes a new asset allocation strategy termed "6-2-2," suggesting 60% in equities, 20% in gold, and 20% in bonds, reflecting a reassessment of strategic asset values amid declining fiat currency credibility [10] - Hong Hao expresses cautious optimism about gold, suggesting potential prices of $4000 for gold and $60 for silver, while noting that current prices may already reflect most positive factors [11] - The final investment advice emphasizes the importance of position management and constructing a portfolio with multiple independent sources of alpha to achieve controllable volatility and attractive returns [12]