美联储主席争夺战风云突变：沃什崛起是特朗普的烟雾弹吗？

Core Viewpoint - The competition for the next Federal Reserve Chair has intensified, with Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh emerging as the leading candidates, influenced by recent endorsements and market predictions [5][6]. Group 1: Candidates and Predictions - Kevin Warsh has recently gained traction, with prediction markets showing his chances at 48% on Kalshi and 49% on Polymarket, while Kevin Hassett stands at 41% and 43% respectively [6]. - The shift in the competition dynamics follows Trump's indication of choosing between the two Kevins and support from influential figures like Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan [6][7]. Group 2: Concerns and Analysis - Concerns have been raised about Hassett's suitability due to his overt support for Trump's policies, which could undermine the Fed's independence and potentially disrupt the bond market [6][12]. - Analysts suggest that Warsh's candidacy may be exaggerated, as much of the support appears to come from external sources rather than Trump's inner circle [7]. Group 3: Background on Kevin Warsh - Warsh, a former Fed governor, has been a vocal critic of the Fed's involvement in social issues and has held various prestigious positions, including at Stanford University and as a partner in an investment firm [9]. - His background includes significant ties to influential financial and academic institutions, which may bolster his candidacy [9]. Group 4: Fed Independence and Policy Implications - The next Fed Chair is expected to maintain independence and credibility, especially regarding inflation, with analysts skeptical about significant policy shifts following the leadership transition [12]. - Hassett has countered concerns about his potential partisanship, suggesting that leadership roles can lead to changes in perspective [13].