读研报 | 日央行加息预期升温，这次不一样？

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming interest rate decisions from various central banks, particularly the Bank of Japan, are generating significant market interest, with concerns about potential market reactions similar to those seen after the last rate hike in July 2024 [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Expectations - The current market sentiment indicates that a repeat of the previous market turmoil is unlikely, as multiple reports suggest differences in market conditions compared to the last rate hike [3][4] - As of October 21, 2024, speculative net long positions in the Japanese yen have risen to 70,414 contracts, contrasting sharply with the historical high of 182,033 net short positions recorded on July 9, 2024 [3] - Market expectations for a December rate hike by the Bank of Japan are significantly priced in, with a 91.5% probability indicated by overnight index swaps as of December 4, 2024 [3] Group 2: Risk Factors and Market Preparedness - The volatility of major currencies has been declining since April 2025, creating a favorable environment for carry trades, although previous reversals in carry trades have mitigated related risks [4] - The sudden nature of the last rate hike in July 2024 contributed to heightened market panic, which is not expected to recur due to the current market's preparedness and expectations [4] - Despite the market's readiness, the potential for increased volatility exists as rising Japanese interest rates may tighten global liquidity, impacting asset prices [4]