【广发宏观陈礼清】快慢变量分野，新老资产收敛：2026年大类资产展望

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that in 2025, major asset classes will experience extreme differentiation under the "narrative embrace," with gold leading the way in risk-reward ratio, and emerging markets outperforming developed markets in equities [1][18] - The asset rotation framework for 2025 differs from previous years, as "narrative trading" has changed the mapping relationship between major assets and economic cycles, indicating a potential shift in pricing dynamics for 2026 [2][25] - The short-term liquidity acts as a "switch" for asset price increases, while narrative trading amplifies these price movements, suggesting a symbiotic relationship between liquidity and narrative trading [3][27] Group 2 - The correlation between assets serves as a window to observe "trend stickiness" influenced by narratives, with three typical scenarios: trend stickiness, mean reversion, and drift towards new fundamentals [4][30] - In the context of U.S. assets, 2025 saw a typical "de-dollarization" narrative in the first half, with liquidity pricing power recovering in the second half, although narrative trading has not reversed [5][34] - For Chinese assets, there is a notable return to negative correlation between stocks and bonds, while the correlation between stocks and commodities is strengthening, indicating a shift in market dynamics influenced by AI narratives [6][38] Group 3 - The cross-analysis between China and the U.S. shows a divergence in the first half of 2025 under the "de-dollarization" narrative, while the second half saw a strong resonance between "AI narratives" and recovering liquidity pricing power [7][42] - Alternative assets like gold are experiencing a return to negative correlation with U.S. assets, while the relationship between gold and long-term developed country bonds has strengthened, indicating competitive dynamics in the context of de-dollarization [8][44] - The speed of response of Chinese assets to narrative shocks has accelerated, positioning them as "leaders" in global market changes, contrasting with the lagging response of U.S. and European assets [9][39]