Zhaojin International Gold(SZ:000506) 第一财经·2025-12-16 13:18Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has experienced a significant rally in 2025, with an annual increase of 73.67%, surpassing the communication sector and leading the market [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen remarkable individual stock performances, with Srey New Materials (688102.SH) leading with a 340.01% increase, and several other leading companies like Zhaojin Mining (000506.SZ) and Xinyi Silver (000426.SZ) also showing gains over 150% [3][5]. - A total of 26 stocks in the sector have doubled in value this year, marking a vibrant landscape in the A-share market [3]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historically, the non-ferrous metal sector has never topped the annual performance rankings, achieving second place twice since 2000, and has not maintained a position in the top five for consecutive years [8][9]. - The sector's past performance has been characterized by significant volatility, often linked to commodity cycles and global monetary easing [8][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming year, 2026, poses a critical question: will the non-ferrous metal sector follow historical patterns of correction or break the "consecutive ranking" curse? [5][10]. - The sector's high valuation levels present a challenge for continued growth, with the non-ferrous metal index reaching a historical high of 7499.07 points, approximately 17% below the peak of 9030.95 points in 2007 [11][12]. Group 4: Price Dynamics - The rally in 2025 has been broad-based, encompassing precious metals, industrial metals, and new materials, driven by factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks [5][6]. - Precious metals like gold and silver have seen substantial price increases, with gold rising 227.71% and silver prices exceeding 100% growth, driven by supply constraints and robust industrial demand [5][13]. Group 5: Sector Drivers - The demand for industrial metals is expected to grow due to investments in new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and digital infrastructure, which will support long-term demand for copper and aluminum [5][14]. - Analysts predict that the dynamics for 2026 will be influenced by various factors: gold will be driven by credit and safe-haven demand, silver by production elasticity and industrial needs, and copper by supply shortages and new energy trends [12][14].