热点思考 |“存款搬家”：市场误解了什么？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the market has misunderstood the concept of "deposit migration," highlighting three main misconceptions regarding excess savings, the speed of market entry, and the investment attributes of excess savings [2][9]. Group 1: Misunderstanding Excess Savings - The discussion around "deposit migration" often equates a decrease in deposits with an increase in market investments, overlooking the role of wealth management products [3][10]. - The constructed comprehensive savings indicator shows that excess savings are significantly larger than excess deposits, with current excess savings estimated at over 9.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 29.8% savings rate, the highest in 15 years [3][26]. - Historical analysis indicates that potential market entry from excess savings could exceed one trillion yuan, with past bull markets showing substantial amounts of savings entering the stock market [4][31]. Group 2: Underestimating Market Entry Speed - The reliance on "non-bank deposits" to track migration is flawed, as it includes interbank business disturbances, leading to an underestimation of the speed at which residents are entering the market [5][34]. - The "non-bank net liabilities" metric provides a more accurate reflection of market entry, showing significant increases since September 2024, suggesting a potential addition of 8,000 billion yuan to securities trading margin [5][37]. - Auxiliary indicators, such as margin deposits and financing balances, indicate a notable "deposit migration" phenomenon, with significant increases in both metrics since mid-2024 [6][41]. Group 3: Investment Sensitivity of Excess Savings - Unlike overseas experiences, excess savings in China since 2021 have shown a stronger investment characteristic, primarily influenced by changes in asset allocation rather than direct consumption support [7][49]. - The reduction in housing expenditures has been a major contributor to excess savings, with a significant decline in housing consumption from 7.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to 3.1 trillion yuan by 2025 [7][53]. - The current environment of declining fixed-income asset yields is pushing residents to seek new investment opportunities, indicating a potential shift in asset allocation behavior [7][63].