热点思考 |“存款搬家”：市场误解了什么？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the market has misunderstood the concept of "deposit migration," highlighting three main misconceptions regarding excess savings, the speed of market entry, and the investment attributes of excess savings [2][9]. Group 1: Misunderstanding Excess Savings - There is a common misconception that resident deposits equal total savings, and a decline in deposits does not necessarily mean savings are entering the market. The discussion often focuses on time deposits, overlooking the structural impact of the conversion between deposits and wealth management products [3][10]. - The scale of excess savings is greater than excess deposits, with a significant amount of wealth management funds potentially being allocated to the stock market. Current estimates suggest that excess savings could exceed 9.4 trillion yuan, with a savings rate reaching a 15-year high of 29.8% [3][26]. - Historical experiences indicate that the potential scale of savings entering the stock market could be in the trillions. For instance, in previous bull markets, significant amounts of savings were allocated to the stock market despite lower excess savings levels [4][31]. Group 2: Underestimating Market Entry Speed - The use of "non-bank deposits" to track the scale of "migration" may lead to underestimating the speed at which residents are entering the market. Non-bank deposits, which total around 35 trillion yuan, include interbank business disturbances that do not accurately reflect resident market entry [5][34]. - The "non-bank net liabilities" indicator provides a better tracking mechanism for resident market entry, showing significant increases since September 2024, which may indicate two rounds of "deposit migration" [5][37]. - Auxiliary indicators such as margin deposits and financing balances also suggest that there has been a notable "deposit migration" phenomenon since mid-2024, with significant increases in both metrics [6][41][45]. Group 3: Underestimating Investment Attributes - Unlike overseas experiences, excess savings in China since 2021 have shown a stronger investment attribute, primarily driven by changes in asset allocation behavior rather than direct consumption support [7][49]. - The reduction in housing expenditures has significantly contributed to excess savings, with a notable decline in annual housing consumption from 7.7 trillion yuan in 2021 to 3.1 trillion yuan by 2025 [7][53]. - The current over-allocation of assets to fixed-income products, which have seen declining excess returns, may lead residents to seek new investment opportunities, especially as housing prices face downward pressure [7][63].