【宏观】胶着的医保谈判，不确定的政府停摆——《大国博弈》系列第九十二篇（赵格格/周可）

Core Viewpoints - The ongoing expansion of the interest rate differential between the US and Japan since 2022 has led to an increase in the scale of yen carry trades, raising concerns about potential market impacts due to the reversal of these trades [4][5]. Group 1: Yen Carry Trade Activity - The activity level of yen carry trades can be observed through both on-balance and off-balance sheet banking operations. On-balance sheet metrics include the volume of yen-denominated loans issued by global banks and the scale of internal accounts held by foreign banks in Japan. Off-balance sheet observations can be made through the foreign exchange swap market, particularly by monitoring the net short positions in non-commercial yen futures [5]. Group 2: Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Decisions - The probability of the Bank of Japan raising its policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75% in the December meeting is considered high. This is attributed to two main factors: the rapid depreciation of the yen could exert inflationary pressure domestically, and there are expectations of higher wage growth in Japan next year, which poses a risk of a "wage-inflation" spiral [6]. Group 3: Impact of Current Carry Trades on Financial Markets - The current impact of carry trades on financial markets is expected to be less significant than in 2024. The scale of current carry trades is only 40% of the levels seen in July 2024. Additionally, the macroeconomic environment in the US does not indicate a recession risk, which reduces the likelihood of unexpected scenarios leading to accelerated unwinding of carry trades. Furthermore, the potential for an increase in Japan's policy rate is limited, and the sentiment towards the yen is not concentrated, suggesting that any appreciation of the yen will have a minimal market impact. The conflicting goals of Japan's large-scale fiscal stimulus and the central bank's inflation control measures may lead to further selling pressure on Japanese government bonds [7].