国泰海通｜地产：延续趋势，金融风险减少——地产11月观察及数据点评

Group 1 - The overall expectation for 2026 is a continuation of the trends observed in 2025, indicating low financial risk but persistent economic pressure. The real estate sector is not expected to contribute to systemic financial risks in 2026 [1] - Industry data shows a decline, with significant downward pressure on overall industry operations. Monthly development investment decreased by 31.4%, new construction area by 27.7%, and sales amount by 26.1% year-on-year. Despite fluctuations in October, growth rates remain low [1] - The trend of unsold inventory indicates a reduction in real estate investment and alleviated pressure on real estate companies, expected to continue into 2026. The increase in unsold area is primarily due to completed but unsold properties, reflecting financial pressure on developers [2] Group 2 - The negative contribution of real estate to the macro economy is a current market concern, but absolute amounts are expected to stabilize. The year-to-date decline in real estate investment is -15.9%, with a projected reduction of approximately 1.6 trillion yuan in 2025 compared to 2024 [3] - The components of real estate investment, including land acquisition, active construction, and passive delivery, indicate that passive delivery is expected to continue decreasing. Future expectations largely depend on sales conditions and the financing environment [3]