民营加油站直面生存危机

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant challenges facing the refined oil industry in China due to the rapid rise of electric vehicles (EVs) and the shift towards cleaner energy, leading to a peak and subsequent decline in refined oil consumption [4][5]. Industry Overview - In 2024, China's apparent oil consumption is projected to be 756 million tons, with refined oil consumption at 390 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% [5]. - The rapid advancement of energy alternatives has weakened the demand for traditional energy sources, compounded by fluctuating international oil prices, which have further pressured the refining sector [5][10]. Market Dynamics - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached a historic high of 53.2% in November, with sales of 1.823 million units, marking a 20.6% year-on-year increase [8]. - By mid-2025, the total number of vehicles in China is expected to reach 359 million, with new energy vehicles accounting for 10.27% of this total, up from 8.9% at the end of 2024 [9]. Consumption Trends - The gasoline consumption is projected to decline significantly, with estimates suggesting that by 2025, new energy vehicles will replace approximately 34.58 million tons of gasoline, equating to 21% of the national gasoline demand in 2024 [9][10]. - The monthly average gasoline consumption in China has already shown a decline of 5.04% year-on-year as of October 2025 [10]. Industry Challenges - The refined oil industry is entering a "reduction development" phase, with major oil companies experiencing shrinking profits. For instance, China Petroleum's net profit dropped by 32.23% in the first three quarters of the year [14]. - The number of gas stations in China is expected to decrease significantly, with projections indicating a reduction of 20,000 stations by 2030, leading to a daily loss of approximately 10 stations [22]. Competitive Landscape - The majority of gas stations in China are privately owned, yet they account for only 25% of total refined oil sales, highlighting a disparity in sales volume despite their large numbers [19]. - The shift towards alternative energy sources is intensifying competition among gas stations, with many facing severe sales declines, some reporting drops of over 50% from peak levels [20][21]. Transition to New Energy - The industry consensus is shifting from traditional fuel suppliers to comprehensive energy service providers, although the transition poses significant challenges, particularly for smaller private gas stations [25][31]. - Major oil companies are investing heavily in the development of charging infrastructure, with China Petroleum planning to invest approximately 71.88 billion yuan in energy stations and charging facilities in 2024 [27]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that the future of gas stations, especially private ones, is precarious, with many unable to adapt to the rapid changes in energy consumption patterns [33].