中金点睛·2025-12-16 23:50Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has entered a stage of high-quality development, with a focus on high dividend investments and stable growth in profits and revenues expected through 2026 [2][3][4]. Group 1: Banking Sector Performance - The expected revenue growth for listed banks in 2026 and 2027 is +2.5% and +3.6% respectively, while net profit growth is projected at +1.9% and +2.6% [2]. - Factors contributing to improved revenue and profit growth include narrowing net interest margin pressure, quality-focused credit issuance, and stabilization of fee income growth after several years of reductions [2][4]. - The net non-performing loan generation rate is expected to stabilize or slightly decline, with retail and corporate sectors showing different trends in risk exposure [4][25]. Group 2: Credit and Financing Trends - The demand for credit is expected to slow slightly by 2026, with a shift in the structure of new social financing reflecting changes in customer needs and regulatory impacts [3][4]. - The government and state-owned enterprises are becoming significant contributors to leverage, influencing the structure of new social financing and the banks' balance sheets [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Regulatory Environment - The banking industry is experiencing a reduction in the number of licenses, indicating accelerated supply-side reforms and improved competitive dynamics [4][22]. - Regulatory policies are evolving, with a focus on enhancing the quality of service rather than merely increasing customer numbers, particularly in inclusive finance [3][4]. Group 4: Financial Metrics and Projections - The net interest margin is projected to narrow by 6 basis points in 2026, with a balanced structure of volume and price being crucial for achieving high-quality financial metrics [4][16]. - The total assets of banks are expected to grow at a rate of 7.8% YoY, with net profit growth rates showing a gradual increase from 12.6% to 2.6% over the forecast period [12][16].