中金2026年展望 | 油气化工：曙光已现，景气回暖

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry has been in a downturn for approximately 3.5 years, but with a decline in capital expenditure and the accelerated exit of outdated overseas capacity, the industry is expected to enter a low-growth phase. The self-discipline within the industry is accelerating the recovery of product profitability, and the anticipated growth in demand from sectors like new energy suggests a potential turning point for the chemical industry cycle [2][3][11]. Industry Performance - The chemical price index and profit margins are currently at low levels, with a 10.3% decline in the chemical product price index from early 2025, placing it at the 10.4% percentile since 2012. The profit margin for chemical raw materials and products from January to October 2025 is at 4.14%, the lowest since 2017. The gross and net profit margins for petrochemical companies in Q3 2025 are 15.9% and 4.6%, respectively, also among the lowest in recent years [6][12]. Supply Dynamics - Capital expenditure for petrochemical companies decreased by 18.3% and 10.1% in 2024 and Q1-Q3 2025, respectively. The construction of new projects has also seen a decline, with a 13.2% year-on-year drop in Q3 2025. The growth rate of fixed assets and ongoing projects is at its lowest since Q1 2018, at 6.8% [3][7]. The exit of 11 million tons of outdated capacity in Europe from 2023 to 2024 is expected to alleviate global supply-demand imbalances [7]. Demand Outlook - The demand for chemical products is expected to remain resilient, with a focus on the recovery of the U.S. real estate market. The domestic demand for chemical products is projected to grow, supported by policies aimed at achieving around 5% economic growth in 2026. Early-cycle products like chemical fibers are anticipated to see rapid growth in consumption from 2020 to 2024 [12][14]. Investment Opportunities - The industry is expected to see a turning point, with favorable supply-side factors and rapid growth in demand for materials in the new energy sector. The valuation of chemical companies is currently low, with significant profit growth expected in 2026 for leading companies. The chemical fiber industry, particularly PTA and polyester filament, is expected to experience a cyclical upturn in 2026 [15][25].