非农有喜有忧：申万期货早间评论-20251217

Economic Overview - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 64,000 in November, surpassing the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed optimism about the economic outlook, predicting a GDP growth rate of 3.5% for the entire year of 2025 [1] Commodity Insights Oil - The SC night market fell by 2.24%. Gasoline prices in the U.S. dropped below $3 per gallon, the lowest in four years [2] - U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 9.3 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased by 4.8 million barrels and 2.5 million barrels, respectively [2] Fats and Oils - November palm oil production in Malaysia was 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 5.3% month-on-month, while exports fell by 28.13% to 1.212 million tons [2] - As of the end of November, palm oil inventories rose by 13.04% to 2.835 million tons, indicating significant inventory pressure [2] Coking Coal - The coking coal market showed narrow fluctuations, with total holdings remaining stable. Coking coal supply is relatively loose, and the profitability of steel mills has declined [3] - The market is expected to experience limited downward movement due to potential demand recovery and seasonal heating needs [3] Financial Market Trends - The U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the retail sector leading gains while the communication sector lagged [11] - The financing balance increased by 4.842 billion yuan, indicating a positive trend in capital flow [11] Domestic News - The Social Security Fund emphasized the importance of prudent investment operations and effective asset allocation to support national development needs [8] - The postal industry in China reported a cumulative business volume of 196.75 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 12.9% [8] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Brazil's soybean planting rate reached 94.1%, slightly below last year's rate of 96.8% [24] - U.S. soybean exports to China have been slower than expected, with a total of 2.7 million tons sold since October 30 [24] Sugar - The sugar market remains weak, influenced by Brazil's faster-than-expected harvesting and India's production recovery [27] - Domestic sugar production costs are high, providing some support to the market despite overall weakness [27] Shipping Index - The European shipping index is experiencing downward fluctuations, with expectations for price stability in January due to strong loading conditions [29]