智利“右转”，如何牵动全球锂业神经

Core Viewpoint - The election of José Antonio Kast marks a significant political shift in Chile, transitioning from a leftist to an extreme right leadership, particularly impacting the country's lithium industry, which is crucial for global supply chains [3][5][7]. Group 1: Political Shift and Economic Implications - Kast's victory represents a dramatic political swing in Chile, completing a near 180-degree turn from radical left to extreme right within four years [3][5]. - Chile holds approximately 31% to 34% of the world's lithium resources, supplying nearly 40% of the global market, making it a critical player in the lithium industry [5][7]. - Kast's economic philosophy emphasizes a return to free-market principles, contrasting sharply with the previous administration's focus on state control over strategic resources like lithium [15][20]. Group 2: Social and Ideological Changes - Kast's administration is expected to reinforce conservative social values, opposing progressive movements related to LGBTQ+ rights and women's rights, which could lead to renewed cultural conflicts in Chilean society [19][21]. - His strong stance on crime and immigration, including a "zero tolerance" policy, aims to address public safety concerns but may provoke humanitarian criticisms [17][19]. Group 3: International Relations and Lithium Cooperation - Despite the political changes, the fundamental economic relationship between China and Chile is likely to remain stable, as China is Chile's largest trading partner, with about 65% of lithium exports going to Asia [23][25]. - Kast's government may alter the lithium development model, potentially allowing for more private investment and participation from Chinese companies, which could reshape the dynamics of lithium resource management [27][29]. - The shift in Chile's foreign policy may lead to closer ties with the U.S., impacting the strategic positioning of Chilean lithium within global supply chains [27][29].