独家洞察 | 失业率「狂飙」的美国就业市场：降温已现，政策仍待观察

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with rising unemployment rates and a decline in non-farm employment numbers, indicating a cooling labor market [3][4]. Employment Data Summary - In November, non-farm employment increased by 64,000, slightly above market expectations, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, signaling a continued cooling of the labor market [3]. - October saw a significant decline in non-farm employment by 105,000, marking the third instance of "net reduction" in the past six months. This decline was primarily due to over 150,000 federal employees leaving their positions to accept government buyout offers, impacting public sector employment [3]. - Economists describe the current labor market as characterized by "low layoffs and low hiring," with companies cautious about layoffs and a decline in job vacancies [3]. Federal Reserve Policy Implications - Employment and inflation data are critical for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. However, due to the government shutdown affecting statistical work, the October and November employment data are considered somewhat distorted [4]. - The market expects the Federal Reserve to refrain from reacting strongly to these employment reports in the upcoming January meeting, with more reliable data anticipated in early January 2026 [4]. Divergence in Interest Rate Predictions - There is a divergence in views regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy for the upcoming year. Most officials predict only one rate cut in 2026, while some believe no cuts are necessary. In contrast, futures markets suggest investors are betting on two rate cuts in 2026 [5]. - Analysts have differing opinions on the employment report's implications. Some view it as providing the Federal Reserve with policy flexibility, while others express concerns about how a weaker job market could impact overall economic growth [5]. Economic Outlook - Despite the clear trend of cooling employment, some analysts believe it aligns with a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, as job growth is no longer overheating and wage inflation pressures are easing [6]. - The urgency for the Federal Reserve to initiate a new round of rate cuts in January appears limited, with a preference to wait for more stable employment and inflation data before making further policy decisions [6].