碳酸锂涨超8%逼近11万关口，发生了啥？能涨到哪？

Market Trends - On December 17, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged, rising over 8% and reaching a peak of 109,860 yuan/ton, approaching the 110,000 yuan/ton mark [2] - The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price on December 17 was 97,171 yuan/ton, up 1,209 yuan/ton from the previous working day [8] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons, with spodumene-derived lithium rising by 260 tons to 13,744 tons, while lithium mica production decreased by 200 tons to 2,876 tons [8] - The expected lithium carbonate production for December is projected to increase by 3% to 98,210 tons [8] - Weekly inventory decreased by 2,133 tons to 111,469 tons, with downstream inventory down by 957 tons to 42,738 tons [8] Regulatory Developments - Jiangte Electric announced that the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau plans to revoke 27 mining rights, including the lithium ceramic stone mine in the Shiziling area, which is part of a broader cleanup of expired mining licenses [4][7] - The proposed revocation of these mining rights is part of a regulatory effort to clarify the boundaries between ceramic and lithium mining rights, indicating a shift towards sustainable resource management in Yichun [11] Price Drivers - The recent price increase in lithium carbonate is driven by tightening supply expectations due to the proposed revocation of mining licenses and ongoing delays in the resumption of production at the Jiangxiawo lithium mine [10] - The demand for energy storage continues to grow, with domestic production of power batteries and energy storage batteries increasing month-on-month in November, indicating robust downstream demand [10] Market Outlook - The short-term outlook for lithium carbonate prices remains strong due to supply constraints and sustained demand, despite potential seasonal price declines [10][11] - The overall supply-demand mismatch in the lithium carbonate market is expected to persist, making it difficult to reverse the current price trends [11]