宏观经济总体平稳，全年顺利收官在望｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - China's macroeconomic operation continues to show overall stability and progress, with a projected growth rate of around 5% for the year, laying a solid foundation for the 14th Five-Year Plan and 2026 [2][17]. Economic Performance - The industrial added value maintained a stable and relatively fast growth, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in November and 6.0% from January to November [4]. - Fixed asset investment is on a downward trend, with a total of 444,035 billion yuan from January to November, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%. Excluding real estate development investment, fixed asset investment grew by 0.8% [4][6]. - Real estate investment saw a significant decline of 15.9% year-on-year from January to November, with the decline expanding compared to the previous month [12]. Consumption Trends - Social retail sales totaled 43,898 billion yuan in November, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3% and a cumulative growth of 4.0% from January to November [7]. - Consumption patterns show steady growth in basic and some upgraded goods, with significant increases in food, communication equipment, and cultural office supplies [7]. Export Resilience - Exports showed strong resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% in November, reaching a record high of 330.35 billion USD for the year [9]. - Exports to the US stabilized, while growth rates for exports to ASEAN and the EU remained robust, compensating for the decline in exports to the US [9]. Financial Indicators - Social financing maintained good growth, with a total of 2.49 trillion yuan in November, a year-on-year increase of 1,597 billion yuan [14]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.7% year-on-year in November, indicating a steady upward trend in prices [14]. Future Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference indicated that achieving the 5% growth target for 2025 is highly likely, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations for 2026 [17][18]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain an expansionary stance, with a projected deficit rate of 4%-4.2% and an increase in special government bond issuance to support key areas [21]. - Monetary policy will remain flexible, with potential small-scale adjustments to interest rates and reserve requirements to ensure liquidity and support economic growth [22].