国泰海通｜策略：消费景气线索增多，电子产业增长延续

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a mixed economic outlook with increasing consumer sentiment, strong trends in the AI and electronic industries, while the real estate and durable goods sectors show weak demand [1]. Group 1: Consumer Sentiment - Consumer sentiment indicators are on the rise, with Shanghai Disneyland experiencing a high congestion index, and movie box office revenues showing strong year-on-year growth [2]. - The central economic work conference emphasizes the need for actions to boost consumption, suggesting potential policy support for consumer demand through 2026 [1][2]. - The average retail price of passenger cars has increased by 6.4% month-on-month and 9.9% year-on-year, indicating a stabilization in pricing amid reduced competition in the automotive sector [2]. Group 2: Electronic Industry - The AI infrastructure investment continues to drive demand in the electronic industry, with high-performance storage prices remaining elevated [3]. - As of December 12, the average spot price for DRAM DDR4 and DDR5 is $50.1 and $26.2 respectively, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.8% for DDR4 [3]. - Revenue growth in the electronic industry chain, particularly among storage companies, remains robust, indicating a strong market environment [3]. Group 3: Real Estate and Durable Goods - The real estate market shows continued weakness, with a 33.9% year-on-year decline in transaction volume across 30 major cities [2]. - Sales of passenger vehicles have also seen a significant drop, with daily retail sales down 32% year-on-year during the first week of December [2]. - The construction sector is experiencing low demand, with steel and building material prices remaining under pressure [3]. Group 4: Resource Prices - Coal prices are experiencing a widening decline, while industrial metal prices are fluctuating at high levels due to external economic factors [4]. - The logistics sector is facing seasonal declines in passenger travel demand, with a 4.2% month-on-month drop in long-distance travel [4]. - Freight activity is also down, with highway truck traffic and railway freight volumes decreasing by 2.0% and 0.3% respectively [4].