国泰海通 · 晨报1218｜宏观：美国就业：延续放缓

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. job market is showing signs of slowing down, with November non-farm payrolls increasing by 64,000, which is above the market expectation of 50,000, but the previous month's figures were significantly revised down by 105,000 due to a one-time impact from the Trump administration's delayed resignation plan [1][2] - The unemployment rate in November rose by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%, slightly above the market expectation of 4.5%. This increase is primarily attributed to a rise in labor force participation, while the proportion of permanent job losses has decreased, somewhat mitigating the severity of the unemployment rate increase [1][2] - The U6 unemployment rate saw a significant rise from 8.0% to 8.7%, indicating increased pressure on marginal labor and part-time workers, which is a point of concern [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate cuts is not expected to be significantly influenced by the November employment data, as the mixed signals from job growth and rising unemployment do not indicate a substantial increase in recession probabilities [2][3] - The market's reaction to the employment data has been muted, reflecting a mild "rate cut trade" characteristic, suggesting that the Fed has time to maintain its current stance on interest rates [2] - Expectations for future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may be catalyzed by two main factors: the continued unexpected rise in the unemployment rate and additional dovish signals from the new Fed chair [3]