【重卡11月月报】内销与出口共振，景气度持续向好

Investment Highlights - November sales: Domestic sales met expectations, while wholesale and export exceeded expectations. November heavy truck production reached 114,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +84.4% and +9.8% respectively. Wholesale sales were 113,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +65.4% and +6.6%. Terminal sales were 77,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +34.3% and +9.6%. Exports reached 33,000 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +44.0% and +0.7%. Overall industry inventory increased by 420 units, with a total inventory coefficient of 1.8, indicating a reasonable level [2][14][17]. Industry Structure - In November, the performance of engineering vehicles outperformed logistics vehicles. Terminal sales of engineering vehicles were 8,500 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +41.2% and +13.1%. Logistics vehicle sales were 68,200 units, with year-on-year and month-on-month growth of +33.5% and +8.9%. The market share of engineering vehicles and logistics vehicles was 11.1% and 88.9% respectively, with engineering vehicle share increasing by 0.5 and 0.3 percentage points, while logistics vehicle share decreased by 0.5 and 0.6 percentage points [3][36]. Market Share Dynamics - In November, Foton's domestic sales share increased year-on-year, while the export shares of Jiefang and Foton rose month-on-month. The terminal sales market shares for November were 21.1% for Jiefang, 18.0% for Dongfeng, 16.9% for Heavy Truck, 11.0% for Shaanxi Heavy Truck, and 12.4% for Foton, showing changes compared to the full year of 2024 [4][16][53]. Engine Market - Weichai maintained the top market share in the engine sector. In November, the market shares for Weichai, Cummins, Xichai, Heavy Truck, and Yuchai were 17.4%, 15.6%, 14.6%, 9.2%, and 11.1% respectively. Weichai's terminal matching volume was 13,000 units, with year-on-year growth of +11.8% but a month-on-month decline of -7.1% [5][19][70]. Investment Recommendations - The company is optimistic about the market performance driven by the National IV policy. Recommendations include investing in China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power, while also paying attention to the performance improvement potential of FAW Jiefang and Foton [7][18].