美联储最新调查：企业CFO们预计明年美国物价上涨4.2%，关税仍是最担心的问题

Core Viewpoint - The survey indicates that CFOs in the U.S. expect a significant price increase of 4.2% by 2026, which challenges the Federal Reserve's prediction of inflation returning to around 2% [1][3][4] Group 1: Inflation Expectations - CFOs anticipate a price increase of 4.2% by 2026, with half of the surveyed companies expecting a rise of 3.5% or more [4] - The current inflation level is nearly 1 percentage point above the Federal Reserve's target, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures [3][4] Group 2: Concerns Over Tariffs and Costs - Tariffs and trade policies remain the top concern for CFOs, despite a slight easing of anxiety compared to earlier in the year [5][6] - CFOs expect unit costs to rise slightly more than prices, indicating that a 4.2% price increase may only barely cover rising costs [6] Group 3: Business Confidence and Economic Growth - Business optimism has declined, with the U.S. economic optimism index dropping from 62.9 to 60.2 [7] - Companies predict a modest employment increase of 1.7% and an economic growth rate of approximately 1.9% for 2026 [7] - Less than half of the companies are hiring new positions, with about 20% having no hiring plans and around 9% expecting layoffs [8]