［12月17日］指数估值数据(神奇两点半再现，大盘上涨；最近市场波动是啥原因？）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent fluctuations in global markets, particularly focusing on the A-share market and the impact of liquidity tightening on both stocks and long-term bonds. It emphasizes that while there are short-term volatilities, the fundamental outlook remains positive for certain investment opportunities. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market saw a slight increase in the morning and a more significant rise by the afternoon, returning to a 4.2-star rating [1] - All market caps, including large, medium, and small-cap stocks, experienced an upward trend, with small-cap stocks showing slightly lower gains [2] - Growth-style stocks, which had previously declined, rebounded significantly [3] - The Hong Kong stock market also showed overall gains [4] Group 2: Market Volatility - Recent global markets have experienced asset volatility, with the A-share CSI 300 index correcting approximately 5-6% from its October peak [6][7] - This correction is relatively minor compared to previous significant corrections of over 10% in January and April of this year [8] - New investors entering the market during the third quarter may find this volatility challenging [9][10] - The Hong Kong market has seen even greater fluctuations recently [11] - The broader Asia-Pacific stock markets have also experienced volatility [12] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - Long-term pure bonds have also shown volatility, with the 30-year government bond index fund correcting 8.9% from its peak [13][14] - This bond market correction is larger than that of the A-share market [14] - Typically, stocks and long-term bonds exhibit a negative correlation, but both have recently declined, which is uncommon and often occurs during periods of liquidity tightening [16][17] Group 4: Liquidity and Policy Impacts - Liquidity tightening is influenced by policies related to the US dollar, with the Federal Reserve signaling a "hawkish rate cut" on December 11, indicating potential future rate cuts in 2026 and 2027 [19][20] - The Japanese yen may also see a rate hike in December, which could impact global liquidity as investors who previously borrowed at low rates may face challenges [32] - The end of the year typically brings tighter liquidity as banks face deposit pressures, a trend observed in December 2022, 2023, and projected for 2024 [36][38] Group 5: Future Outlook - Following the December rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the market may experience short-term volatility due to the combination of yen rate hikes and year-end liquidity pressures [39] - However, such liquidity-induced volatility is often temporary, lasting weeks to months, and the market is not fundamentally lacking in capital [40][41] - Once liquidity conditions improve, fundamentally sound investments are expected to see upward trends [42]