中金点睛·2025-12-17 23:54Core Viewpoint - The service industry is showing signs of stabilization and bottoming out after experiencing price pressure and same-store sales decline in 2024, with expectations for recovery in 2026, particularly in sub-sectors like hotels and duty-free [2][17]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The service consumption ratio is increasing, supported by improved infrastructure for chain operations, leading to the emergence of more quality brands [4][21]. - The government has introduced multiple policies to promote service consumption, indicating a potential for stronger recovery in domestic demand [18][20]. - The hotel sector is expected to see a rebalancing of supply and demand in 2026, with RevPAR stabilizing due to a low base and slowing supply growth [4][31]. Group 2: Sub-sector Analysis - Hotels: The hotel industry faced pressure from weak business travel demand and continued supply expansion, but RevPAR showed signs of recovery in October 2025, driven by ADR increases [26][33]. - Duty-Free: Duty-free sales are stabilizing, with a focus on the potential of new policies to boost sales from departing travelers and local residents [45][49]. - Dining: The dining sector is experiencing a controlled competitive environment, with affordable brands performing relatively well amidst a recovering landscape [36][44]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Companies that can effectively meet consumer demands for value and emotional satisfaction, possess strong operational capabilities, and capture sustainable growth drivers are likely to succeed [4][29]. - The focus on high-quality brands and those with strong internal capabilities is expected to yield better performance in the coming years [4][21]. Group 4: Market Performance - In 2025, companies like Gu Ming and Mi Xue have shown significant stock performance, indicating a trend where companies with strong growth potential outperform their peers [7][12]. - The overall market for the service sector is expected to see a gradual recovery, with structural opportunities emerging in the hotel and duty-free segments [6][31].