白银再创新高：申万期货早间评论-20251218

Group 1: Core Insights - The global silver market is experiencing a historic surge, with spot silver prices recently breaking through $65 and $66 per ounce, approaching $67 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of approximately 130%, which is double the increase in gold futures [1][2] - Factors contributing to this surge include supply-demand imbalance, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and increased capital inflow [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has room for further rate cuts of 50 to 100 basis points, as indicated by Governor Waller, due to a weakening job market and controlled inflation [1][5] Group 2: Key Commodities - Silver: The price of silver has reached new historical highs, supported by a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a $40 billion reserve management purchase, which improves market liquidity and boosts risk appetite [2][16] - Coking Coal and Coke: The market for coking coal remains stable, with slight increases in construction and hot-rolled steel production. However, there is a downward trend in iron production, and the market is expected to stabilize due to seasonal demand [2][21] - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass production is in a phase of inventory digestion, with a decrease in glass inventory and a slight increase in soda ash inventory. The market is closely monitoring potential changes in industry operations [3][15] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - The U.S. stock indices experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping by 1.16%. However, the A-share market is expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend supported by policy and capital flow [8] - The bond market saw a general increase, with the 10-year treasury yield falling to 1.8425%, indicating a continued loose monetary policy environment [9][10] Group 4: International and Domestic News - Internationally, the Federal Reserve's policy direction indicates a likelihood of maintaining interest rates in January, with a 77% probability of no change and a 21% chance of a 25 basis point cut [5] - Domestically, the Ministry of Finance reported a slight increase in public budget revenue, with tax revenue growing by 1.8% year-on-year [6]