2026年锂电池需求预测

Domestic Market (2026 Outlook) - Total sales are expected to grow by approximately 15%, reaching over 19 million units [1] - Domestic sales are projected to increase by about 8-9%, driven mainly by policies (the old-for-new national subsidy is expected to continue but may decrease by 20-30%), new model launches, and an increase in electrification rate (currently over 50%) [1] - Exports are anticipated to grow by 40-50%, primarily driven by BYD (with an annual increase of 500,000-600,000 units), Chery, Geely, and other automakers expanding overseas [1] - The average battery capacity per vehicle is expected to increase by about 10%, mainly due to plug-in hybrid and range-extended models needing to meet subsidy requirements (with a range of over 100 km) and an increase in heavy-duty vehicle battery capacity [1] - Demand for power batteries is projected to grow by 20% (with vehicle sales growth under 10% and battery capacity growth over 10%) [1] Overseas Market (2026 Outlook) - In Europe, sales are expected to grow by about 30%, exceeding 5 million units, driven by potential new subsidies in Germany (targeting low-income households) and the introduction of new economical models [1] - In the United States, sales are expected to remain flat or slightly decline, primarily due to the exit of IRA electric vehicle subsidies and limited new model highlights (except for Tesla's low-priced models) [1] - Emerging markets are projected to grow by about 50%, with a focus on pure electric vehicles (accounting for 88%) and a low electrification rate (under 6%), indicating significant potential. Key markets include South Korea, Thailand, Brazil, and India [1] - Overall overseas electric vehicle sales are expected to grow by approximately 20% [1] Energy Storage Market - Demand for energy storage is expected to grow by over 60%, reaching over 1,000 GWh (compared to over 600 GWh in 2025) [1] Global Lithium Battery Demand - By 2026, global demand for power and energy storage batteries is expected to reach 2,600-2,700 GWh, an increase of approximately 600-700 GWh year-on-year [1] - The incremental demand is mainly driven by energy storage (approximately 400 GWh) and power (over 200 GWh) [1]