数说新能源·2025-12-18 03:02Demand Outlook - The global energy storage system installation capacity is expected to reach approximately 360 GWh (equivalent to 125 GW) by 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 35% [1] - Key growth regions include the United States, Australia, and the Middle East, with the Middle East projected to install 35-45 GWh by 2026, and the U.S. expected to reach 60-80 GWh, with AI data centers contributing 15-20 GWh [2] - Europe is anticipated to experience slower growth, with an expected increase of less than 10% due to potential supply chain constraints [3] Competitive Landscape - In the U.S. market, Tesla leads with approximately 40% market share, benefiting from strong technological capabilities and robust local production, although it faces challenges with higher pricing [4] - Chinese suppliers dominate the battery supply market, with CATL holding about 40% market share in North America, but cautious about further growth due to U.S. "non-China supply chain" requirements [5] - Korean companies, such as LG Energy Solution, are expected to gain market share through localized production and investment tax credits, despite currently lagging behind Chinese firms in safety performance [5] Price Outlook - Overall prices for energy storage systems are expected to decline, with no long-term capacity shortages anticipated for battery cells [6] - In the U.S. and EU markets, prices for energy storage systems from non-Chinese manufacturers are 30%-50% higher than those from Chinese manufacturers, with AIDC-related storage being less price-sensitive [7] - The Middle East market is characterized by intense price competition, approaching levels seen in China, driven by cost sensitivity and large order sizes [7]