数据点评 | 理性看待4.6%失业率——11月美国就业数据点评（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Overview - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, exceeding market expectations, while non-farm payrolls showed a slight increase of 64,000 jobs, against a forecast of 50,000 [1][6] - The labor participation rate increased to 62.5%, slightly above the expected 62.4% [6] Structure - The rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6% reflects temporary layoffs and improvements in labor supply, with the government’s "deferred resignation" plan contributing to job losses in October [2][20] - The unemployment rate is close to the critical point of 4.7% that would trigger the "Sam Rule," but the credibility of the data is questioned due to a low response rate of 64% in household surveys [2][27] Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in January 2026 is uncertain and will depend on December's economic data [3][35] - Short-term demand remains weak due to tariff impacts, government shutdowns, and AI effects, but labor supply may contract further, leading to a gradual rebalancing of the job market by 2026 [3][32]