研报 | DDR5高获利放大产能排挤效应，2026年HBM3e定价动能同步转强

Core Insights - The storage market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, leading to a rapid increase in conventional DRAM prices, while HBM3e prices are also rising due to increased GPU and ASIC orders, although the price gap between HBM3e and DDR5 is expected to narrow significantly in the coming year [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Starting from Q3 2025, the storage market's supply-demand situation reversed quickly due to higher-than-expected demand for AI-related server layouts, prompting major cloud service providers to increase their DDR5 inventory and plan purchases for 2026-2027, resulting in a market shortage [3]. - The contract price for Server DDR5 in Q4 2025 has increased significantly beyond market expectations, with wafer profitability expected to strengthen, leading to a rapid convergence in price differences between HBM3e and Server DDR5 [3]. Group 2: Pricing Trends - As conventional DRAM profitability rises, some suppliers are shifting capacity towards DDR5, providing greater pricing power for HBM3e. Following the increase in GPU and ASIC demand, major buyers are adding HBM3e purchases to prepare for upcoming AI system developments [4]. - Suppliers have regained pricing power and are adjusting previously low contract prices, with an expectation that the overall ASP for HBM3e will see a slight increase in 2026 [4].