数据点评 | 财政的四大发力点（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The focus of future fiscal revenue and expenditure may be on maintaining deficits, standardizing tax collection, supplementing local financial resources, and resolving hidden debts [2][48] Group 1: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first eleven months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue reached 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, while expenditure was 248,538 billion yuan, up 1.4% year-on-year [1][6] - In November, the broad fiscal expenditure showed a significant improvement with a year-on-year decline of -1.7%, narrowing the drop by 17.5 percentage points compared to October, while fiscal revenue fell by -5.2%, a further decline of 4.6 percentage points [2][7][50] Group 2: Factors Influencing Fiscal Performance - The divergence in fiscal revenue and expenditure is partly due to base disturbances in the revenue side and the ongoing drag from land finance [2][8] - The broad fiscal revenue in November 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of -5.2%, with government fund revenue down by -15.8% and general fiscal revenue at -0.02% [4][14] Group 3: Support for Fiscal Expenditure - The 5,000 billion yuan limit on local special bonds and the implementation of financial tools have become important supports for broad fiscal expenditure in November [3][10] - The government fund expenditure turned positive in November, reaching a growth of 2.8%, significantly improving from a negative position in October, attributed to the 5,000 billion yuan local special bond limit [39][50] Group 4: Future Fiscal Strategy - Looking ahead to 2026, the fiscal revenue focus may include maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, standardizing tax incentives, addressing local fiscal difficulties, and urging local governments to actively manage debts [13][49] - The central economic work conference indicates that the revenue side will emphasize maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and standardizing tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies [2][48]