冬藏春启：年末市场观察

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "cross-year market trends" in the A-share market, highlighting the historical patterns and factors influencing these trends, particularly around the end of the year and the beginning of the new year [3][5]. Group 1: Historical Patterns of Cross-Year Trends - Cross-year trends typically occur from December to March or April, influenced by key events such as the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions [3]. - Statistical data from 2010 to 2025 shows an increasing probability of major indices rising from December to February, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 both showing a 47% rise in January [4]. Group 2: Factors Driving Cross-Year Trends - Three main factors contribute to the emergence of cross-year trends: 1. Policy Expectations: The Central Economic Work Conference in December sets the tone for economic policies, with further clarifications during the Two Sessions in March, prompting market positioning [6]. 2. Liquidity Environment: The beginning of the year often sees increased credit and seasonal recovery in monetary growth, providing a supportive environment for market activity [6]. 3. Earnings Vacuum and Institutional Positioning: The period before the release of annual and quarterly reports allows for speculative positioning, as institutions begin to seek new opportunities after year-end performance assessments [6]. Group 3: Current Market Insights - Recent fluctuations in the A-share market are influenced by external factors such as changing interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve and concerns over AI valuation bubbles impacting market sentiment [7]. - The potential for a cross-year trend depends on supportive factors, with current market conditions showing signs of recovery and active trading, particularly in quality growth assets [7][8]. - The macroeconomic environment remains supportive, with the Central Economic Work Conference maintaining a loose policy stance and emphasizing capital market reforms and domestic demand expansion [8]. Group 4: Structural Opportunities - Despite macro pressures, micro-level resilience is evident, with A-share revenue growth turning positive and stable ROE for non-financial companies [8]. - High-growth sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing are showing strong performance, with the potential for broader industry improvements to create diverse structural opportunities in the market [8].