今夜美国CPI或掀年末最大行情，美元和黄金的“生死对决”即将上演？

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is highly anticipated by Wall Street, as it will provide the first inflation data since the end of the recent government shutdown, with expectations of a 12-month inflation rate of 3.1% and a core CPI of 3.0% [4][5]. Group 1: CPI Report Expectations - The CPI report is expected to show a year-on-year inflation rate of 3.1%, with the core CPI anticipated at 3.0% [4]. - Analysts predict that the overall and core inflation readings may be lower than expected, potentially at 2.9%, which could positively impact the stock market and set the stage for a "Santa Claus rally" [6]. - The report's release is complicated by the lack of monthly percentage change data due to the previous government shutdown, raising questions about the accuracy of the data [8]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Analyst Insights - Analysts express that even a slight change in the CPI may not lead to significant market reactions, as the data's limitations could keep the Federal Reserve in a cautious stance regarding interest rate decisions [8][12]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the CPI data will confirm persistent inflation pressures, driven by rising housing costs and resilient commodity prices, with core inflation expected to average a month-on-month increase of approximately 0.28% [11]. - The lack of detailed monthly data may reduce market response but still indicate ongoing inflationary pressures, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may maintain a restrictive policy stance into early 2026 [12]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - Analysts highlight the uncertainty in the economic outlook, with conflicting indicators such as weak unemployment trends and strong profit growth expectations, indicating a complex economic environment [9]. - The potential for a "death cross" in the dollar's moving averages signals market volatility ahead of the CPI release, with traders preparing for possible fluctuations [14]. - Gold prices are experiencing slight declines but maintain a positive technical outlook, with potential for upward movement if certain price levels are surpassed [16].